Jays Thoughts - Home Opener Edition
The start of this season has been more of a roller coaster than I wanted. The team is 6-4 with bats that are batting and pitchers who are pitching just well enough to let the bats get the wins. I feel like the Blue Jays should have lost some of the games they won but they stole a couple of games they probably should have lost. Here are some thoughts going into the home opener
Batters Batting - The engine of this offense has been Matt Chapman, Vladimir Guerrero and Bo Bichette. All of them are hitting over .350, they’ve combined for 7 home runs. Last year it felt like the team always had one or two players who had a hot bat who would carry the team through a series. So far, this season, a three-headed monster is living at the top of the lineup with guest appearances being credited from game to game. Kevin Kiermaier and Dautlon Varsho have made a great first impression with their new teams. Varsho playing well on the field and in the batter’s box feels great because the team gave up two players the fans had keen eyes for over the years. Making the fan forget who you “replaced” is greatly appreciated. Kiermaier feels like he is paying the fans back for all the headaches he gave us over the years when he played for the Rays. When he stretched that single into a double against the Royals I forgave him for all the sorrow he brought to my past fandom. I’m a pushover, what can I say?
Pitching Blues from the Jays - There are parts of the pitching staff I love. I love the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning guys. I like the top three starters and what I see from Kikuchi. Berrios struggles have me concerned because there doesn’t seem to be a solution and the same problems we saw last year are what we can plainly see on TV this year. The ball is up and when things start to get out of control they get way out of control. I’m thankful there are three front liners who can carry the load for the first 5 or 6 trips through the rotation. This isn’t last year when the ace of the staff is throwing a hit party for the other team. I’ll be honest, I’m starting to get creeping thoughts about the contract Berrios is signed to and what happens if he gets moved to the bullpen. “But he HAS to figure it out at some point” is my hope but I’m not seeing anything different from last year. At this part of the season, the rest of the pitching staff has to be on their game. The margin of error is being used by other parts of the rotation. What I have seen from the rest of the staff is the ability to keep the team in games while the bats do what they have been doing. In a game full of ups and downs, it feels good that the team can be 6-4 with one of the units playing as “poorly” as they have been playing.
Chapman Farwell Tour? - Matt Chapman is in the last year of his current contract and whoa boy is he playing for the next one. His slash line as of this writing is .475/.523/.800 with a WRC+ of 272 and 1.0 WAR, after ten games. That’s 16 WAR pace for a full year. For context, Babe Ruth’s best season was 14.1, Mookie Betts had 10.7 WAR in 2018 and Aaron Judge had 10.6 last season. I will take the under on 16 WAR in one season, but I will take the over for 8.0. What does this mean for his future with the team? The Jays have options are the MLB and AAA level. However, when the Jays moved on from Donaldson, it took until Chapman to be stable at the hot corner. If the Jays’ front office is serious about playing better run prevention and they signed pitchers like Bassitt, I feel like a 5-year contract @ $28-32m is going to be the cost. How serious is this organization about run prevention? That said, we’re ten games into the season, but this is where my head is at.
Bo & Vlad Contracts - The Jays have been on the precipice of handing out huge contracts to their young stars. See the way Vladdy plays first and has gone back to the patient approach at the plate. I want the prime of his career to be played with the Blue Jays and the cost does not matter to me. The team signing him long-term tells me they are serious about this window. making that commitment would go a long way to erase the years of non-spending and non-competitive baseball. Bo on the other hand represents the drive and seriousness of winning. I can look past the periodic chaos that is Bo defense. The hits, then more hits, then MORE hits can take Bo and this team to the World Series. Negotiate with these players, but lean on the side of the player and get them signed long-term.
Good Vibes - I love what I see from the rest of the team on the field and in the batter’s box. I love the aggressive base running and I love that the team isn’t playing their best but they are winning games and being competitive. There is room for improvement but it is clear that the replacement level of play this team brings every day is good enough to be in every game. I’m feeling good with what I’ve seen so far.
