Survivor Pool - Week One
Every year a friend and I take part in a survivor pool. We’ve been doing this for almost a decade. In some seasons I will have multiple spreadsheets, and I will attempt to formulate wins and losses like I have a chance to beat the line makers. Some seasons we are flying by the seats of our pants and pick based on vibes. Regardless of how complex the system is in a given year, it’s always a lot of fun. As the weeks go by and the choices get more difficult, we dig into the stats for team rankings of this unit versus that unit. How dangerous is it to pick a team on the road regardless of the betting line and how many of the cardinal rules are you willing to break?
The Cardinal Rules
-The favorite at home is the better choice
-Weird stuff happens on Thursday Night
-Cross-country travel is bad
-There better be a good reason not to take a double-digit favorite
-Rookie QBs are dangerous for everyone
Okay, they aren’t all “rules” exactly, but these are the pillars we live by when we are making our choices. This season, I’m going to run through our picks and provide some reasoning on how we get to our choices. Enough preamble, let’s get to week one’s picks.
Chiefs over Lions
Let’s start by looking at the cardinal rules and….WELP. “Pick a TNF game and find out” is what we have here. At the time we decided on the pick, Kelce was not OUT of the game. KC was playing at home, a notoriously difficult place to win. The Lions are young and have yet to prove they are a threat on the road against a team like Kansas City. Since our choice to go with the Chiefs, the Lions have shown they belong on the field with anyone this season. Yes, there were moments KC could have finished off this game. They didn’t, and we are out one of our entries in week one. Embrace the chaos.
*this was written Saturday morning
Vikings over Bucs
Week one can be pretty easy but it’s also a huge guess. The Vikings are playing at home against the Bucs who are supposed to be a bottom dweller this season. A good way to get deep into a survivor season is to follow the bad teams around and hope they don’t have a good day. Minnesota was a TD favorite when we made the pick. They are a 5.5-point favorite as I write this. This is as simple as a bad team on the road against a decent team with weapons on offense.
Commanders over Cardinals
The Commanders were a 7-point favorite when we picked them and they are a 7-point favorite at the time of writing. Another case of a bad team, maybe the worst team in football, on the road against……Well, I don’t know what kind of team the Commanders are just yet but I think Arizona has to travel across most of the country, they are on the road and the home favorite by a touchdown is difficult to pass up in week one. A perk to this pick is Washington is not a regular choice for us. If we get this pick right, we get a pick into the next week of the season on what feels like a “freebie”. Medium risk, high reward.
Ravens over Texans
Ravens and Lamar Jackson at home, 10-point favorites against one of the preseason bottom dwellers. I don’t have a good reason not to pick the 10-point favorite at home. Let’s keep moving.
Seahawks over Rams
The last pick of the week came down to Seattle or Jacksonville. Looking at our rules, the favorite at home is the better choice. Indy is probably going to be terrible this year but looking at rule #5, Rookie QBs are dangerous. At the time of selection, the Jags were one point more highly favored than the Jags in their game. The lines are now the same at 4.5. Cooper Kupp is out for the Rams and Seattle is at home. The Home favorite is always the better choice.
CHR;)
