Survivor Pool - Week One Recap & Week Two Picks

Week one is brutal every year in Survivor Pool. It’s hard to know how good the “good” teams are and how bad the “bad” teams are. The best example in week one is the Minnesota - Tampa Bay game. A “bad” team beat a “good” team on the road. I’m writing this after the Thursday Night game where the Vikings had four turnovers, and I really have to ask what kind of season the Vikings are going to have. It won’t be as good as I thought going into week one. When you’re picking five entries in a single season without trying to duplicate, it makes it tough to make week two with more than three surviving entries. To be clear, that isn’t a rule, you’re allowed to pick the same team on different entries in the same week. We try to avoid doing that for the risk of losing two picks in one game.

In this post, we will be wrapping up week one. This will include reasons why we won and why we lost. There will be week two picks for those entries that survived and “dead picks” for those that did not. I think it will be fun to see how many losses I can avoid over the course of a full season. I’d also like to provide some ideas as you go along in your own survivor pools. With that, on to the wrap and picks!

Week 1 Recap

Chiefs over Lions - Lost

Let’s start by looking at the cardinal rules and….WELP. “Pick a TNF game and find out” is what we have here. At the time we decided on the pick, Kelce was not OUT of the game. KC was playing at home, a notoriously difficult place to win. The Lions are young and have yet to prove they are a threat on the road against a team like Kansas City. Since our choice to go with the Chiefs, the Lions have shown they belong on the field with anyone this season. Yes, there were moments KC could have finished off this game. They didn’t, and we are out one of our entries in week one. Embrace the chaos. (#1 Entry)

Recap

This loss happened because we put too much stock in “Kansas City at Home” and underestimated Detroit. The line going into the game was the second or third-best line from Vegas. The other sin here was picking the Thursday Night Game. Should have been scared away from this game for so many reasons and we missed it.

Vikings over Bucs - Lost

Week one can be pretty easy but it’s also a huge guess. The Vikings are playing at home against the Bucs who are supposed to be a bottom dweller this season. A good way to get deep into a survivor season is to follow the bad teams around and hope they don’t have a good day. Minnesota was a TD favorite when we made the pick. They are a 5.5-point favorite as I write this. This is as simple as a bad team on the road against a decent team with weapons on offense. (#2 Entry)

Recap

We were caught off guard by a team that is off to a bad start to their season. After talking about this loss, we should have thought about Baker Mayfield and his ability to just win a game. Mayfield does not give off the “win 10+ games" per season vibes but he does have the ability to play out of his mind and win a game against the right team on the right day. Conversely, Cousins is capable of the opposite. That should have some up and we should have moved this game down the list of potential picks.

Commanders over Cardinals - Win

The Commanders were a 7-point favorite when we picked them and they are a 7-point favorite at the time of writing. Another case of a bad team, maybe the worst team in football, on the road against……Well, I don’t know what kind of team the Commanders are just yet but I think Arizona has to travel across most of the country, they are on the road and the home favorite by a touchdown is difficult to pass up in week one. A perk to this pick is Washington is not a regular choice for us. If we get this pick right, we get a pick into the next week of the season on what feels like a “freebie”. Medium risk, high reward. (#3 Entry)

Recap

This was closer than it needed to be but we got the win. The Cardinals did not have enough to keep up and overtake the Commanders. This pick was the medium-risk pick so I can’t say I wasn’t mentally prepared for a close game. Just happy to get the risk pick into week two when we lost three games we felt pretty good about going into the week.

Ravens over Texans - Win

Ravens and Lamar Jackson at home, 10-point favorites against one of the preseason bottom dwellers. I don’t have a good reason not to pick the 10-point favorite at home. Let’s keep moving. (#4 Entry)

Recap

No drama, got the win, moving on to week two.

Seahawks over Rams

The last pick of the week came down to Seattle or Jacksonville. Looking at our rules, the favorite at home is the better choice. Indy is probably going to be terrible this year but looking at rule #5, Rookie QBs are dangerous. At the time of selection, the Jags were one point more highly favored than the Jags in their game. The lines are now the same at 4.5. Cooper Kupp is out for the Rams and Seattle is at home. The Home favorite is always the better choice. (#5 Entry)

Recap

Seattle used to be a reliable pick at home. The Rams are supposed to be garbage this year. Seattle played poorly. The were outgained in total yardage. They game up two sacks and gained none themselves. The offense was abysmal and Stafford was having a great game and found a rookie to throw to. The most annoying part is that the way to avoid this loss is in the original write-up; “Jacksonville has a better line”. Should have gone with the Jags, but we didn’t and we paid the price.

Week 2 Picks

Lions over Seahawks

The theory is built around the Lions’ WRs and their ability to run all over the field and get open. The Rams did it with a rookie and their top WR missing. The Lions are here to make a statement and start the season 2-0. They are playing at home and they will be energized. The Seahawks did not show anything in week one that would suggest they can go on the road to a stadium that will be bumping and hungry for their up-and-coming team to win. (#3 Entry)

Cowboys over Jets

The Cowboys’ defense at home against the Zach Wison-led Jets’ offense. This was not a tough decision. Clearly the best option on the board this week. (#4 Entry)

(Dead Pick) Bills Over Raiders

The Bills will be desperate and on paper, they are the superior roster. They are at home and the line favors them in this game. Prior to last week, this would have been a comfortable lock, but after Buffalo’s performance in week one, I’m not that comfortable. This is why the Lions are the second live pick this week and not the Bills. Another thing in the Bills’ favor is Las Vegas having to travel a relatively long way. This is not a division game and while the QB is good, he is a known quantity and the Bills defense is always very dangerous. (#2 Entry)

(Dead Pick) Eagles over Vikings

This would break the Thursday night rule but the Vikings looked terrible in week on. Cousins is playing as the less scary version of himself and the Eagles are at home. After a game against the Patriots, the Eagles will want to make a statement of their own. They will also want to get to 2-0 on the season. The flip side of that argument is that Minnesota will be more desperate to avoid starting the season 0-2 but I believe the Eagles will be too much. (#1 Entry)

(Dead Pick) Browns over Steelers

A division game but the last two games on the list are the Dolphins @ Patriots or this game. Picking the Browns comes down to the Cleveland defense vs the Steelers quarterback. Cleveland is on the road and this being a division game suggests this is a BAD game to be looking at for a survivor pick. Lean into a good defense. Hope the offense can play better in week 2. They ran the ball okay in week one. I think the Browns do enough to get the win on Monday night. (#5 Entry)

The Cardinal Rules

-The favorite at home is the better choice

-Weird stuff happens on Thursday Night

-Cross-country travel is bad

-There better be a good reason not to take a double-digit favorite

-Rookie QBs are dangerous for everyone

-Division Games are usually dangerous

CHR;)