Survivor Pool - Week Two Recap & Week Three Picks

Week Two we find ourselves with a whole week’s worth of information but how reliable is that information? Spoiler alert, Geno Smith was not as bad in week two as he was in week one and the Lions, while fun, may not be ready. The Rams might be more ready to hang on longer than we thought. Are a team like the Dolphins ready to become a survivor pool darling? Let’s jump into the week two recap and the week three picks

Week 2 Recap

Lions over Seahawks - Lost

The theory is built around the Lions’ WRs and their ability to run all over the field and get open. The Rams did it with a rookie and their top WR missing. The Lions are here to make a statement and start the season 2-0. They are playing at home and they will be energized. The Seahawks did not show anything in week one that would suggest they can go on the road to a stadium that will be bumping and hungry for their up-and-coming team to win. (#3 Entry)

RECAP

We got Geno Smith’d. Geno had a great game and the Lions’ offense was not the same thing we saw in week one. These are the losses that are “easier” to take because one player just has a game. That is difficult to predict and when it happens, you hope you don’t have the other team in Survivor Pool. We did, and we lost one of last two entries.

Cowboys over Jets - Won

The Cowboys’ defense at home against the Zach Wilson-led Jets’ offense. This was not a tough decision. The best option on the board this week. (#4 Entry)

RECAP

I know the Jets hung around for the first lap around the track, but this game was never close. The Jets are dealing with a long list of issues already so I will not dump on them here. One to week 3, 1 of 5 entries remain alive.

(Dead Pick) Bills Over Raiders - Won

The Bills will be desperate and on paper, they are the superior roster. They are at home, and the line favors them in this game. Prior to last week, this would have been a comfortable lock, but after Buffalo’s performance in week one, I’m not that comfortable. This is why the Lions are the second live pick this week, not the Bills. Another thing in the Bills’ favor is Las Vegas having to travel a relatively long way. This is not a division game, and while the QB is good, he is a known quantity, and the Bills defense is always very dangerous. (#2 Entry)

RECAP

NGL, when the Raiders scored the first touchdown I texted my buddy and asked if the Bills were bad. Well, they took that personally and crushed it for the rest of the game. A game like this goes to show that poor performance in one week is not an indicator of the next week’s performance.

(Dead Pick) Eagles over Vikings - Won

This would break the Thursday night rule but the Vikings looked terrible in week on. Cousins is playing as the less scary version of himself, and the Eagles are at home. After a game against the Patriots, the Eagles will want to make their own statement. They will also want to get to 2-0 on the season. The flip side of that argument is that Minnesota will be more desperate to avoid starting the season 0-2, but I believe the Eagles will be too much. (#1 Entry)

RECAP

The lesson from this game is that you never know what the deciding factor is going to be. It is easy to look at offense and defense yardage and points per game. In this case, I think the 4 fumbles were the difference. The result of the game fits the theory for the pick but the deciding factor was not part of the written theory. Better teams find ways to win and recovering fumbles is one of those ways. Maybe this is the sort of think that gets “baked in” to the overall theory but I can’t give myself that much credit. Take Survivor Pool wins however you can get them, even when you’re playing with Dead Picks.

(Dead Pick) Browns over Steelers - Lost

A division game but the last two games on the list are the Dolphins @ Patriots or this game. Picking the Browns comes down to the Cleveland defense vs the Steelers quarterback. Cleveland is on the road and this being a division game suggests this is a BAD game to be looking at for a survivor pick. Lean into a good defense. Hope the offense can play better in week 2. They ran the ball okay in week one. I think the Browns do enough to get the win on Monday night. (#5 Entry)

RECAP

Nick Chubb going down was not the only thing that prevented the win. The Steelers came to play and the Browns had too many turnovers and lacked any offensive pop to get the victory. I feel like this is “classic Browns” where they make the fans feel like this is the year, but there are too many Yellow-Green flags to feel good about the long-term prospects of this season. Just like the Bills turning it around from one week to the next, hopefully, the Browns can do the same, even without their starting RB.

Week 3 Picks

Chiefs over Bears

The Bears are one of those teams you follow around from week to week in Survivor Pool. They have the Chiefs this week in Kansas City. Justin Fields and the rest of the Bears offense does not inspire confidence and until they change that feeling, picking the Chiefs at home feels like a free trip into next weekend. Marino knows we need an easy week. Another rough start to a Survivor Pool for us this year. However, the same thing happened last year and we won the whole thing. Let the dynasty continue. (#4 Entry)

(Dead Pick) Cowboys over Cardinals

The Cowboys are a Super Bowl contender this year and the Cardinals are not. The Cowboys might be going on the road but the defense is too good and they will get to play in the quiet conditions of playing the offense on their home field. This is the kind of game where the Cowboys offense has to opportunity to build some confidence for Survivor Pool selection later in the season. Well, not for us, we’re down to one pick of five remaining. (#1 Entry)

(Dead Pick) Ravens over Colts

The injury report is the first place to look with this report and yes, there are a lot of names but the Colts starting QB being on the OUT list makes this an easy selection. Throw in the fact that Baltimore is playing at home. Comfortable to take the Ravens. (#2 Entry)

(Dead Pick) Dolphins over Broncos

The Dolphins might be missing a penguin but this is their home opener and Cheetah speed does not go away just because his animal friends are taking a week off. I also happen the think the talking points around this game miss the fact that the offense is talented across the pattern tree. I think the Broncos are in a similar confidence crisis as the Bears. The Broncos have a better chance of making a game out of this but they have to play in the heat against a team ready to make an impression in front of their home crowd. This is the bottom of the “confident pick” list I have in week 3 but I’m reasonably confident the Fins will find a way to victory. (#3 Entry)

(Dead Pick) 49ers over Giants

Daniel Jones and the Giants, fly across the country for a Thursday Night Game and they get to face the 49ers defense. I would not be surprised if the Niners’ defense scores more than the Giants’ offense. (#5 Entry)

Saturday Morning EDIT: The Niners’ defense did not outscore the Giants’ offense, but this game never felt close.

The Cardinal Rules

-The favorite at home is the better choice

-Weird stuff happens on Thursday Night

-Cross-country travel is bad

-There better be a good reason not to take a double-digit favorite

-Rookie QBs are dangerous for everyone

-Division Games are usually dangerous

CHR;)